Tell us about bad crowd predictions

Reporter's Notebook

Assignment

What are the limits of the crowd's predictions? Does it rely on the type of community that's harnessed? If accurate predictions depend on the types of community that is harnessed, how do these organizations go about getting the right crowd?

Compare crowd predictions to similar projects that don't crowdsource. Can you find some numbers? If put in context, what do they teach us?

Are there examples of failed predictions?


Background

Crowdsourcing Predictions

The power of turning to a large group to answer a factual question is fairly obvious.

But what about asking a crowd something that cannot be known? Question like:

  1. Who will win the next presidential election?
  2. What will be the next breakout technology?
  3. When will Osama bin Laden be captured?

Financial markets have been getting crowds to predict the future for centuries. Now that concept is being widened and deepened. Using the same basic concept -- put your money where your mouth is -- people using services like [[http://www.intrade.com|Intrade]] are offering a new way to detect trends and outcomes. And they can be [[http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9401E4D7163EF937A25751C0A9619C8B63|remarkably prescient]].

The Financial Times this month [[http://www.ftpredict.com|announced a contest]] with a $25,000 prize for a four-month contest. "FTPredict is a fantasy stock league for people who care about elections, finance, business and geopolitics", [[http://www.intrade.com//?request_operation=main&request_type=action&checkHomePage=true#|said Robin Johnson]], President of the FT in the Americas.

Is this for real, or "for entertainment purposes only?" Who takes part? Can this be gamed?

These are some of the questions the writer of the main story will tackle.


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